A new research report from the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) predicts ongoing declines in the violent felony arrest rate of California’s youth through 2020. The report analyzes past violent felony arrest data for two age groups — children under age 12 and youth ages 12 – 17 — to identify the relationship between childhood arrest rates today and those of older youth five years in the future. The analysis finds a strong, predictive relationship between the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 and those of older youth ages 12 – 17. As such, recent declines in childhood arrest signal continuing and substantial declines in the arrest rate of older youth.
The report finds:
- Arrest data suggest that a decline of 1 arrest per 100,000 children under age 12 would produce a decline of approximately 7.5 arrests per 100,000 12 – 17-year-old youth five years later.
- Recent declines in the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 forecast a decline of 24 percent in the violent felony arrest rate of youth ages 12 – 17 from 2016 to 2020. This translates into a annual reduction of 1,600 to 1,700 arrests.
- A decline in the number of youth arrested annually for violent felonies will shrink the pool of youth eligible for commitment to local detention facilities and the state’s Division of Juvenile Justice.