The California Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation both report crime has fallen to among the lowest levels ever recorded. This stands in stark contrast to a recent op-ed by Republican legislative leaders Brian Jones and James Gallagher. It falsely stated that since major criminal justice reforms were implemented in 2014 “we’re facing a crime wave unseen since the 1980s.”
Opponents of reform want to return California to the high-incarceration, high-cost days that featured higher, not lower, crime rates. Californians in 2024 are experiencing less than a third of the crimes per resident reported in 1980 and just two-thirds as many as they experienced in 2006. The state has achieved these historic declines amid criminal justice reforms and a major reduction in incarceration. On December 31, 2006, a record 267,596 Californians were incarcerated in jails and prisons compared to 150,878 as of June 30, 2024.
Offenses reported to law enforcement per 100,000 population, California, 1980 – 2024
Sources: DOJ, 2024; FBI, 2024.
Similarly, the FBI’s new January-June 2024 data for 49 California cities (San Francisco added) show crime rates fell for the third straight year following the COVID-19 pandemic reopening. These cities, with 10.6 million people total, have accurately forecast statewide crime trends.
Offenses reported to law enforcement per 100,000 population, 49 cities, January-June
| All Part I | Violent | Property | Homicide | Rape | Assault | Burglary | Larceny | MV theft | Arson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 3,102.4 | 499.7 | 2,602.7 | 5.5 | 34.9 | 133.4 | 326.0 | 396.4 | 1,705.2 | 501.1 |
2023 | 3,063.6 | 478.6 | 2,585.0 | 4.4 | 36.5 | 128.0 | 309.6 | 391.1 | 1,712.5 | 478.5 |
2024 | 2,683.9 | 457.6 | 2,226.2 | 3.4 | 31.1 | 118.9 | 304.2 | 325.6 | 1,447.3 | 450.9 |
Change | -12.4% | -4.4% | -21.5% | -14.9% | -7.1% | -1.8% | -13.9% | -16.7% | -15.5% | -5.8% |
Source: FBI, 2024. Note: The FBI uses the eight Part I offenses above as the “index of crime.” Rates are annualized by multiplying crime numbers by the full year’s number of days divided by the number of days from January 1 through June 30.
The 2024 rates, if they continue through December, represent California’s lowest rates ever recorded for homicide, robbery, burglary, larceny, arson, and all property offenses since California first developed comprehensive tabulations for these offenses in 1996. The criminal justice reform era is associated with continued reductions in both incarceration and crime.